September 20, 2006
What if President George W. Bush has a popularity rating of 50% or more in the polls in late October/early November before the midterm elections? How will the congressional elections be affected? Will they be influenced by his rise in the polls?
The congressional elections should be going towards the Democrats in both the House and Senate. But that may not actually be the final scenario when the votes are counted.
The latest USA Today/Gallup Poll now has President Bush at 44% which is his highest rating in a year. Some of the reason for his improvement is the result of gasoline prices dropping at the pump. Also, the many events televised on 9/11 remembering one of the most tragic days in American history has sparked an increase in the president’s ratings as some voters view him as better able to fight terrorism than the Democrats.
It would be ironic if the Democrats, who are trying to nationalize the public’s perception of the midterm elections to focus on the chaos in Iraq and the failures of the government in helping the hurricane victims last year in New Orleans and Mississippi, were now to find themselves battling a more popular president. In his previous elections President Bush has shown he has coattails and can help GOP candidates win their races. He has proven he can handily raise money.
So, before Nancy Pelosi gets ready to head the House and Joe Biden readies himself to head the Senate Foreign Relations Committee the trend going the Democrats way lately may not be the same by election day this November.
The president’s speech at the United Nations yesterday was actually fairly well done and his performance was one of his best in awhile. He is lucky to have the media setting up the UN General Assembly opening session as a fight between Bush and the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Bush looked more composed and diplomatic than the Iranian president.
President Bush actually said in his UN speech that “we have no objection to Iran’s pursuit of a truly peaceful nuclear power program” and that “we’re working toward a diplomatic solution to this crisis.”
Also, speaking to the people of Darfur, President Bush once again reiterated that “my nation has called these atrocities what they are - genocide.” He stated, “If the Sudanese government does not approve this peacekeeping force quickly, the United Nations must act” saying that “the credibility of the United Nations is at stake.”
Today, President Bush met with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas at the United Nations. Showing support for Abbas and his more moderate policies in the Middle East the President spoke out: “Helping the parties reach this goal [of peace] is one of the great objectives of my presidency.”
President Bush is not shying away from the big issues of the day only a few months ahead of the midterm elections. He seems to be firing up his conservative supporters at this point in time. Whether or not they go to the polls on November 7th is another question. The higher turnout in the 2004 presidential election benefitted the Republicans because they based their campaigns on moral and social topics. Look for more talk of social issues from the Republicans in the next few months.
There is very little support for the president’s goals in Iraq from the American public but the Democrats are also being questioned as to what their actual objectives are in Iraq. The American voter may be overwhelmingly against the president in Iraq but we all know where he stands on “staying the course”. The Democrats are all over the place on Iraq and their many viewpoints tend to be confusing.
In the final analysis I agree with former Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill who said “all politics is local”. Most voters know their congressman or congresswoman and elect them over and over again because of local concerns, so I don’t see a nationalized election this year. Every voter will cast their vote for the House on local issues and how well they respect or know their particular representative.
In the Senate races, national and foreign policy issues will play more of a role but even here voters will look more closely at local and state concerns.
Today, the conventional wisdom is that the Democrats should be in the lead in taking back the House and possibly the Senate because of the public’s dissatisfaction over Iraq.
But, the conventional wisdom is often wrong in politics. And, President Bush has often confounded the political analysts and may yet do it again this election cycle by providing coattails to his party’s candidates in the House and Senate races. |
