August 16, 2006
“It’s morning again in America, and under the leadership of President Reagan, our country is prouder and stronger and better.”
1984 Reagan presidential campaign ad
As I get ready to teach a course entitled Political Campaigns at Johns Hopkins University and also get ready to start a new Center on Politics and Foreign Relations at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) I have become very aware of the role a candidate’s personality plays in presidential campaigns.
Doing research on the presidential campaigns from John F. Kennedy in 1960 up to the George W. Bush campaign in 2004 there is convincing evidence that the American voter is much more swayed by the candidate’s personality than even the candidate’s views on the major issues of the day.
The presidential campaigns of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 were both based on the candidate’s optimistic personality and positive view of America’s future as the Morning in America advertisement makes clear.
In 1984 Reagan won the most electoral votes in the history of American presidential campaigns with his landslide victory over Walter Mondale.
Whatever the voter thought of Reagan’s views they had to be impressed with his optimism and confidence. Certainly all campaigns have negative ads but the Reagan campaign dealt more with what was positive with the country.
The question for 2008 is which candidate presents this type of optimism. Which candidate for president in 2008 is speaking out about positive, dynamic and innovative new programs for the country to deal with our domestic and foreign policy problems? Which candidate is not spending all of his/her time complaining about his/her opponent?
In 2008 look for many of the candidates in both parties to follow the Reagan Morning in America theme or even his 1980 theme of “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” which was also a very clever soundbite that resonated with the voters.
So far in the early stages of the 2008 presidential campaign it is quite hard to detect much optimism among the candidates.
As President Bush said the other day while discussing the fragile peace in Lebanon, “Times are tough.”
Yes, times are tough and the war in Iraq and the fragile truce in the Middle East and high gas prices and fear of unemployment and poor schools for our children are constantly on the voters’ minds. But, a successful 2008 presidential candidate will not dwell on what is bad but on how to fix our problems and explain his/her agenda in an optimistic way with a winning personality.
Some readers may remember Jimmy Carter’s malaise speech during his troubled presidency. He basically was blaming the American public for many of the country’s problems. The American voter does not want to hear this type of talk from a presidential candidate and certainly not from the president.
When Americans turned on their tv sets to watch Reagan speak as president his optimistic personality was re-assuring even if one totally disagreed with his policies.
Today, watching the current president on television is often quite painful as he is not very re-assuring and his personality - which I have been told in a one-on-one meeting is positive - is awkward and disconcerting to watch.
So, who of all the candidates gearing up to run in 2008 appears to have the most optimistic personality? Who seems to be running a positive Morning in America type campaign?
It is hard to see very much optimism and confidence in any of the potential candidates so far. I have been having the potential candidates speak at our Politics and Foreign Policy series at SAIS and so far have not detected the optimism in a candidate that Reagan generated in the 1980s. Clinton also generated a type of optimism but it was often overshadowed by his personal problems. Clinton and Reagan both had the charisma needed to get elected in this country. The American voter may not want rock stars or celebrities running for president but we like a little of those qualities in people we elect to the presidency. Clinton and Reagan and JFK definitely had star quality whereas the other recent presidents did not have these magical personalities.
Hillary Clinton, the presumed Democratic frontrunner at this point, doesn’t seem to have even half the optimism and positive personality of her husband. In my opinion, she does not have the charisma her husband has which is essential in a candidate.
John McCain, the presumed GOP frontrunner in these early days, does have a lot of charisma but one does not see the gentle optimism that Reagan exuded.
Former senator and Democratic vice-presidential candidate in 2004 John Edwards seems positive and optimistic most of the time. He speaks in a positive way about the need to move ahead by wiping out poverty in the country. During the 2004 presidential campaign he always appeared upbeat and optimistic. However, his ever-present smile might remind voters of Jimmy Carter who had an unpopular presidency.
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani usually seems to have positive answers and does have a strong personality - not quite as gentle as Reagan’s - but he does have charisma.
Senator George Allen has a positive personality and is presenting some optimistic views on new programs. He has a friendly personality - even though he is now in a little trouble for a remark he made that struck some observers as insensitive - but that will be forgotten by this November as he seeks re-election as Virginia’s U.S. senator.
Someone will take the Reagan script and run with it all the way to the White House and become our new president in 2009. Optimism and a positive personality will take a candidate a long way in the 2008 presidential campaign. Look for the optimism and positive personality of Reagan, the charisma of Clinton and the celebrity and charm of JFK and you will find our new president!
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