Watching the potential GOP presidential candidates parading around the Republican activists in Tennessee last weekend with a straw vote that means absolutely nothing at this early date I was reminded that the “silly season” of presidential politics has begun again.
And seeing the Democrats trying to crowd more primaries and caucuses early on in order to have more “diversity” while angering their fellow Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire who always want to be the first caucus and primary in the nation we see the early rumblings of the 2008 presidential campaign being launched.
We begin to keep score of how much money each potential presidential candidate has raised. At this stage, the qualifying round, the main goal is to show that one is a serious candidate by being able to raise enough money to be taken seriously by the party activists and journalists who care about politics years away from the actual event.
Raising money is the key requirement at this time. It shows everyone that you can be a “contender” for the top political position in the country.
It is actually a strange criterion for choosing our country's president. One would think that a person's views on issues or their character or their career accomplishments might be the main standard but alas that is not the case.
As Jesse Unruh, a former political activist in California, once remarked: “Politics is about three things: money, money and money.”
I would agree with Unruh on the first two things but the third thing I would mention after money and money would be stands on issues and combined with that the idea of having a certain “buzz” about them that makes someone seem “presidential.”
The buzz will come and go with various potential candidates throughout the next two years. Some candidate who is “hot” now will fade and someone we do not even know about now will break through and become the new “buzz” candidate.
We just had Senator George Allen speak at our Politics and Foreign Policy breakfast we host with the Financial Times looking at all the prospective presidential candidates of both parties.
Senator Allen came across better than many people in the audience thought he might. He showed a good personality and an easygoing manner which people seemed to like even if they disagreed with some of his foreign policy views.
Allen seems to have a “buzz” at the moment in the GOP presidential possibility circle of candidates.
Another former Virginia governor, Mark Warner, also seems to have the current “buzz” on the Democratic side of presidential possibilities at the moment although The New York Times magazine could have used a more flattering picture of him on their cover last week.
Just think. We could have the possibility we have not had since the Lincoln-Douglas debates before the Civil War where the major presidential candidates were from the same state, Illinois.
Now there is a chance--slim at the moment--but a chance that both candidates for president in 2008 could hail from Virginia, the state that gave our country most of our early presidents including Thomas Jefferson and George Washington. Good company indeed for these two aspiring candidates hoping to follow in their footsteps.
This is a wide open election with many events that will be happening here at home and abroad that will shape the election that we cannot even imagine at this time.
It is my view that the next president will be a governor or someone who has been a governor. Look at our recent presidents and you see a former governor of Texas, a former governor of Arkansas, a former governor of California and a former governor of Georgia coming out on top.
The winner in 2008 will follow in their footsteps. The American voter sees governors as people who get things done for them. Senators are too distant and talk about issues that are not as immediate to their constituents.
So, there you have it: our next president is now a governor or has been a governor or, in the case of Giuliani, has been a mayor.
Where does that leave the so-called frontrunners of the moment Senators Hillary Clinton and John McCain? More about them in my upcoming “Thinking About It” column. For the moment Virginians - and both former governors - Senator George Allen and former Governor Mark Warner have the “buzz” at this time for their respective parties in the early days of the 2008 presidential race.
As they say, things change daily in politics, and a governor that has little national recognition now could be the “hot” candidate with the buzz the next time we talk. Those are my thoughts - what are you thinking about the 2008 presidential race? - let me know. I can be reached at 202.587.3235 or by email at rguttman@jhu.edu.
P.S. As we will be having all of the potential presidential candidates speak at our Financial Times / Transatlantic Magazine breakfast series in the coming months I will be discussing my views on who is up and who is down at the moment on the campaign trail. And, I will be writing political profiles of each of the candidates and writing a book on the 2008 presidential campaign. I will also continue to update what I see along the way on the road to the White House.
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