June 12, 2007 Part I Exactly a month after being overwhelmingly elected France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy was making his global diplomatic debut at the Group of 8 summit meeting in Germany. Barely off the presidential Airbus last Wednesday, he proudly told journalists he intended to make sure U.S President George Bush agrees to specific, numerical commitments on reducing global warming. “Figures (on carbon emissions) are needed in the final text…I intend to talk with the president (Bush) about this,” he declared. Even before his talk with Bush on Friday, Sarkozy told journalists in Paris that his purpose was to “underline my willingness to be an ally of the United States,” but not “a vassal.” Sarkozy’s second, major goal for the summit, confirming statements made earlier during the election campaign, was to press, in addition to Bush, the other leaders at the summit – Germany, Britain, Italy, Japan, Canada and Russia - for significant increases in financial aid for Africa. And for a commitment to a military-backed plan, advocated by his new foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, for solving the tragic plight of the Sudanese province of Darfur where the death toll stood at over 200,000 and the number of refugees estimated around two million. Claiming credit for “getting people to talk to each other here,” while actively generating French media coverage for himself, the results turned out to be stronger on style than substance. The much-criticized, non-binding, G8 agreement for halving world gas emissions by 2050 reflected, rather, surprising flexibility by Bush, under pressure at home and from those on hand, including thousands of anti-G8 demonstrators who were kept out of the heavily-defended G8 site at Heiligendamm, an 18th century resort on the Baltic Sea. The G8 agreement pledging $60 billion for treatment of AIDS and other diseases in the developing world was immediately condemned as non-binding by aid groups. France’s Kouchner-inspired proposal for a “humanitarian corridor” in Darfur was brushed aside, as was Sarkozy’s last-minute call for a six-month delay in implementing a new United Nations Security Council resolution paving the way for the independence of Kosovo. Other G8 leaders and observers fully agreed that if anyone deserves the credit for agreements reached - however weak, inadequate or disappointing – it goes to Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, who skilfully chaired the meetings; avoiding open conflicts, while getting face-saving accords - to support, for example, international conferences on global warming and Darfur, the latter scheduled for Paris June 25.. Aware of his touchiness and what was going on in France, she told him: “Thank you, Nicolas, for your energy.” Similarly, a friendly word from Bush whom he met briefly on Friday, the last day of the summit, whose spokesman later told reporters that the two leaders had established “a real personal rapport,” and despite Bush’ stomach ailment, is exactly what Sarkozy wanted – enhancement of his image as a world leader, particularly at home where French voters were preparing to cast their ballots in the first-round of legislative elections that for weeks overwhelmingly favored Sarkozy’s conservative party, the Union for a Popular Movement, the UMP. And although the nearly 40% abstention rate was one of the highest in decades, the UMP and its allies won overwhelming support – just under 46% of the vote which meant well over 400 seats in the 577-member National Assembly, compared to 359 seats currently. The Socialist Party that with its leftist allies controlled 149 seats, saw its minority grip slip to between 100 to 140 seats, after scoring just under 30%; and a new centrist party of Francois Bayrou, scoring just over 7%, thus badly beaten, will have somewhere between one and seven seats, compared to 29 seats in the outgoing parliament. The ultra-right National Front Party, suffering the worst defeat in its history, will have no seats in the legislature, amid widespread expectations that the runoffs on June 17 will confirm the first-round voting. “The French people, including those on the left, wished to give this government a chance” to govern during the next five years,” commented Sarkozy’s close adviser and highly-popular Jean-Louis Borloo, a leftist-leaning UMP who has been serving as minister for jobs, and social cohesion, and was promoted to head the powerful ministry of the economy, finance and employment. The 56-year-old lawyer with an MBA from a leading British university, since Sarkozy’s victory, as been actively directing much of the economic-social legislative agenda for the new parliament, led by Prime Minister Francois Fillon, 53, also a former UMP minister and senator who jogs regularly with Sarkozy. Others in the slimmed-down cabinet team – six ministers and four state secretaries – include seven women, such as Christine Lagarde, 51, formerly trade minister and earlier top executive at the Chicago-based law firm Baker & McKenzie, is in charge of agriculture. Michèle Alliot-Marie, 60, also a lawyer and formerly defense minister, directs the powerful interior ministry, and overseas territories while Rachida Dati, 41, a former magistrate, is minister of justice. For weeks, Socialist leader Ségolène Royal has been calling for united, leftist opposition, however weakened, claiming that the reform promises of Sarkozy and his government are “untenable” and will lead to higher turnover taxes, hitting those in lower and middle-income categories; generous tax advantages for those above, while not resolving pressing problems, such as chronic unemployment, particularly among youth, lagging research and growing deficits; the latter have already triggered expressions of concern by EU officials.. But Fillon and Sarkozy have already scheduled a special session of the new parliament beginning June 30, which will begin discussions of proposed laws that would ease rules on working overtime, lending for housing loans; impose minimum rules of operating public transport, such as trains and buses, during strikes; that would provide state-supported universities greater freedom to select students and on the criminal front, allow tougher sentencing for repeat offenders. . It is now clear that the person in charge, who insists on rigorous, tight-lipped discipline from all those around him; who for the first time in decades, combines the roles of president and prime minister; and who, as the Economist noted represents a “study in perpetual motion,” is, of course, Sarkozy. His executive and legislative powers have been described as hegemonic , running a “hyper, US-style” presidency with more popular support at home than any of his predecessors with the possible exception of Charles de Gaulle. How about the rest of the world? Part II The following are Sarkozy’s main goals in foreign policy: 1. Repair the damage caused by France’s rejection of the proposed European Union constitution in 2005, along with the Netherlands in referendum votes. He proposes a new, slimmer version that will be presented and supported by a good number of member states at the next EU summit June 21-22, which will be chaired by Merkel. 2. Significantly improve relations with the Bush Administration and emerge as a key partner on the world stage, with the administration, while maintaining a traditionally-Gaullist distance. “France will always be by their (Americans’) side when needed, but that friendship means accepting the fact that friends can think differently,” he says.
3. Actively defend French trade interests, notably agriculture, even if that means eliminating the powers of EU trade commissioner, Britain’s Peter Mandelson. To ease pressures on French exports because of the weak dollar vesus the euro, Sarkozy has also proposed overhauling governance rules affecting the European Central Bank.
4. Stepping out front with regard to developing countries. A major, supposedly-new proposal is creating a Mediterranean Union, which would link the EU with about a dozen countries bordering on the Mediterranean Sea. That would, he has indicated, include Turkey, the latter in a “privileged partnership,” but short of full membership. Despite grumbling from top foreign ministry officials, Sarkozy has quietly limited the scope and prerogatives of Kouchner, a Socialist who had been sidelined by Royal and and other Socialist leaders, and is the leading leftist in the cabinet, friends still have trouble understanding why he took the job.(“Frankly, I enjoy power,” he is quoted as saying in the left-leaning weekly Le Nouvel Observateur.) This week he was in the Sudan trying to win support for his “humanitarian corridor” proposal, without much success. Meantime, EU, trans-Atlantic, G8 and related strategic issues are being handled by Sarkozy personally and a handful of trusted advisers, notably France’s former, much-admired ambassador in Washington, Jean-David Levitte, who now heads what is expected to become a US-style National Security Agency as part of the right-bank Elysée Palace. The unit is called “the Quai-bis,” a reference to the foreign ministry’s locale on the left-bank Quai d’Orsay. As Sarkozy discovered at the G8 summit last week, the rest of the world, hélas, isn’t France, and the obstacles are formidable. Regarding the upcoming EU summit and the proposals for a new EU treaty – streamlining decision-making in the Council of Ministers, extending qualified majority voting to areas such as immigration and energy, establishing a European Presidency and post of foreign minister – Sarkozy has made it look as if he is spearheading the effort. Indeed, he recently won leaders’ backing for what he calls the “simplified treaty” in Berlin, Brussels, Madrid and Lisbon; and was scheduled to visit Poland’s leaders June 14.. But the reforms, in fact initially proposed by Merkel, are running into very stiff opposition in not only Warsaw, but London, notably from Gordon Brown, a Euroskpetic, who will soon take over as prime minister from Tony Blair and who supports a new treaty. Leaders in Poland the Czech Republic are also opposed to any changes that would reduce their voting power with regard to Germany and France, who would gain power, warning they will veto proposals to do just that. Morever, EU insiders say it is totally unrealistic to think that any single member could strip a commissioner of his authority, guaranteed by EU treaties, as is that of the European Central Bank. President Bush, anxious to turn the page following President Jacques Chirac’s controversial attempts to derail his plans for launching the Iraq war, has invited Sarkozy to visit at his parents’ vacation home in Maine this September. But will Bush endorse French warnings to withdraw its military force from Afghanistan? Will Sarkozy endorse Bush’s plans to impose severe, tougher sanctions on Iran for refusing to end its development of a military, nuclear capability? And even consider the administration’s final option, if all else fails, namely aerial strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites? The continuing controversies over subsidies for Airbus and Boeing and other trade issues are expected to cloud trans-Atlantic relations, even as the two countries cooperate closely in fighting terrorism and drug trafficking. In Brussels last month, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, made it clear that he didn’t appreciate the French president’s protectionist-sounding ideas, even though the two leaders are conservatives. “I am for a Europe which protects, not for a protectionist Europe…” he said, referring to Sarkozy’s warning that he would never agree to selling out EU farm interests in order to obtain concessions on services in the Doha Round of trade negotiations; they are underway in the World Trade Organization, with Mandelson negotiating for the 27-nation bloc under a strictly-controlled mandate from the EU Council of Ministers. “Europe cannot close itself,” said Barosso of Portugal, a view backed by Britain, Germany, the Benelux countries, among others. Finally, the idea of linking the Mediterranean Sea area countries is hardly new. In 1995, the EU heads of state and government, meeting in Barcelona, launched a similar, development-related program that extended to the Middle East, including Egypt, Jordan and Israel. The “Barcelona process” was supposed to promote regional free trade and cooperation in many area, such as culture, but as Le Monde noted May 29, the plan is en panne, broken down. Mainly because of the explosive, violent situation in the Middle East and the continuing “bad will” and resitance to cooperation among the fragile, predominantly-Muslim regimes in the area, according to the report. Asked to judge Sarkozy’s approach to foreign policy, Socialist Hubert Vedrine, who served as a top adviser to President Francois Mitterrand and later became foreign minister, and turned down Sarkozys feelers to join the cabinet in his previous post, recently told a French colleague that yes, there definitely is a change in France’s presidential, diplomatic style. How about substance? “It’s still too early,” Vedrine replied. |
