France Chooses A New President Sunday In A Cliffhanger Vote
May 3, 2007

By Axel Krause

In the runup to France’s second and final-round vote for a new president May 6, and following a long, tense, technical, and dramatically-conflictual televised debate Wednesday evening, the two candidates – Socialist Ségolène Royal and Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy – remained confident of winning amid widespread consensus that the election is a cliffhanger, and too close to call, based on opinion polls and much commentary in France and abroad.

Both candidates brushed off the latest poll results which again showed Sarkozy well ahead, with roughly 52-53% of the vote, compared to 48-47% for her. But, reflecting a long-accepted observation among political scientists on both sides of the Atlantic, he told a radio journalist  Thursday morning that a presidential debate does not change many, if any, opinions, emphasizing that two full days of campaigning remained.

A key, splintered target for both candidates are the some 6.8 million French voters who in the first round voting April 22 supported the centrist candidate Francois Bayrou who has repeatedly urged formation of a German or Italian-style coalition with leftist parties in legislative elections next month. Most Bayrou supporters, who are basically liberal conservatives, with many uneasy or fearful of Sarkozy, tell pollsters they are hesitating and may not support either candidate Sunday.

Meantime, the names of possible, future Prime Ministers have started to surface, based on leaks from Socialist ranks and Sarkozy’s party, the UMP (Union for a Popular Movement) founded by the outgoing president, Jacques Chirac, who declined to seek a third, five-year term.

And foreign policy, which was touched on during the final phase of their debate, focused mainly on the pros and cons of Turkey’s controversial bid to become a member of the European Union and launching a new, simplified EU treaty, following France’s rejection in 2005 of the proposed EU constitution, but approved by 18 EU member countries.

Royal said she remained open on Turkey’s bid, but suggested a “pause” in the current negotiations; Sarkozy repeated his firm opposition, arguing Turkey was in Asia Minor, not Europe, and should be offered an alternative link to the 27-nation bloc.

Both former government ministers agreed on the need for tough sanctions that would force Iran to drop its development of a military nuclear striking capacity. Other major issues, such as trans-Atlantic relations, were either barely mentioned or ignored.

“It’s as if the rest of the world didn’t exist,” former President Valery Giscard d’Estaing commented, the day of the debate, adding he expected a “fresh approach” to foreign policy to emerge shortly after the winner settles into the Elysée Palace and that neither candidate has strong, international credentials. "They’re both intelligent people,” Giscard, who supports Sarkozy, told the New York Times,  “but how either will be as a foreign policy president? Too early to say.”

Nevertheless, the debate watched by some 20 million people, provided some striking, surprising insights into the leadership capacity, knowledge and psychological makeup of the two candidates during some two hours and forty minutes of face-to-face discussion that began at 9 pm. It was variously characterized as incisive, tense, muscular, conflictual, occasionally-cruel, solemn, erroneous and confusing on facts and details pertaining, for example, to the role of nuclear fuel in generating electricity. Many observers from various camps, agreed the debate was of ministerial, not presidential, calibre, lacking vision and credible proposals for financing major programs in France’s lackluster economy.

Royal, who has been widely criticized for lacking knowledge and making erroneous statements,  proved she had a firm, detailed grasp of a wide range of issues related to the economy and social questions, such as the national debt, labor relations, education, health reform, crime and juvenile delinquency, while remaining calm, yet aggressive in addressing Sarkozy in measured tones, like a school teacher. Following Sarkozy’s pledge for wide-ranging reforms if elected, she asked:  “What have you done in five years? For five years (since Chirac’s re-election and Sarkozy’s ministerial-level participation) you had all the power” she said, asserting he lacked credibility.

At another point in the debate, Sarkozy, who it was widely feared might display his volatile temper, proved he could be calm, polite, equally at ease with facts and issues, yet equally tough, such as those related to the Socialist-backed laws implementing the 35-hour week. “It may surprise you,” he said noting that none of the 10 countries in Europe with higher employment levels have such a program.”You want more civil servants? That’s nice. But how do you pay for that?” he asked. “Don’t deform my words,” she answered firmly. “I will maintain the number of civil servants, not increase it. And re-deploy them in a “more efficient way.”

 In a more dramatic, tense exchange regarding programs for helping handicapped children in schools, Royal flatly, angrily termed his proposals-and him personally-hypocritical and immoral. Sarkozy, defending the programs of his government, told her to calm down. She said she wouldn’t defending her outburst as justifiable, “healthy anger;”  to which he retorted that presidential responsibilities are “very heavy,” implying a head of state’s feelings should be controlled and not necessarily displayed in public.

The conclusion for many observers was that, confirming the first-round voting, French voters Sunday are faced with a relatively-clear choice between Royal, a centrist-leaning Socialist, and Sarkozy; she a French-style Social Democrat, and he a rightist, conservative, or German-style Christian Democrat. Reflecting differences on economic and social issues, and with some exceptions, such as Turkey, agreement on foreign policy issues that includes remaining on good terms with Washington, yet opposing US policies if events warrant, such as the war in Iraq.

While the decisions will only come in the wake of legislative elections June 10-17, determining with whom and how the new president will govern France, French political circles are already abuzz over the question: who might be the new prime minister to lead in the next 577-seat National Assembly?

Royal told the leading French daily Le Monde in its May 2 edition, that Dominique Strauss-Kahn, former Socialist finance minister and highly popular with rank-and-file party members, “could be a very good prime minister, if that is my choice.” Also regarded as her possible prime minister, assuming the Socialists win, are Jean-Louis Bianco, co-director of her campaign, and Jean-Marc Ayrault, head of the Socialists in the outgoing parliament.

In the Sarkozy camp, Francois Fillon, senator and a former education minister, is most-often mentioned as his choice for prime minister; also cited as Sarkozy’s choice for Hotel Matignon, where the offices are located, is Jean-Louis Borloo, currently Minister for Employment and Social Cohesion.Former foreign minister Michel Barner, Sarkoz's key foreign policy adviser has also been mentiond, but given his experience, including as European Commissioner, some see him as returning to head the foreign ministry, possibly with an expanded role.