April 10, 2007
France’s 2002 presidential election was won handily by neo-Gaullist Jacques Chirac, while the centrist candidate from the party of former President Valery Giscard d’Estaing, scored a mere 6.8% in the first round of voting, and was eliminated. This was Francois Bayrou. Today he is making a strong comeback, thanks to calm determination, an appealing, middle-of-the-road message, a farm tractor his symbol, while greatly admiring India’s Ghandi, France’s General de Gaulle, former European Commission President Jacques Delors and America’s Al Gore. He thus has emerged as what the left-leaning Paris daily Libération termed this presidential campaign’s “third, providential man.” Indeed, recent polls show he might make it into the decisive second round of voting May 6. Bayrou, (pronounced by-roo) 55, is one of 12 hopefuls running in the first round of voting April 22. His popularity rating in the past few weeks has oscillated between 18% and 24%, trailing the two front-runners, a conservative and a Socialist. He claims they are unfairly favored by the influential French media and political establishment, admitting a few days ago that “the campaign is far tougher than I ever imagined.” France’s leading daily newspaper Le Monde in its April 1 edition headlined that Bayrou’s “moment (for winning) is over,” noting a temporary drop of several points in his rating, a conclusion he firmly rejects, noting some 40% of French voters remain undecided as to how they will vote. A former education minister in previous, conservative governments in the 1990s, and member of the European Parliament, Bayrou is currently leader of his minority centrist party in France’s National Assembly, the Union pour la démocratie francaise, the UDF, founded by Giscard in 1978. He grew up on a farm in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques region of southeastern France before becoming a teacher with a doctorate in the classics, author and politician, and who, as an adolescent overcame stuttering. Childhood friends recall him avidly reading newspapers for their political coverage, and talking about “changing the world.” His wife, Elisabeth – they married when they were 20 - gave up her teaching career after the birth of their fourth child (out of six) and is proud of her now-American relatives in Des Moines, Iowa. He remains openly critical of the Bush administration over the war in Iraq, but like many of the French, greatly admires Americans and the dynamics of American society; Montana is the state he, a horse-breeder, admires most. And unlike his two, main opponents, not only is his English reasonably good, but as he told a colleague of The New York Times recently, he has, over the years, travelled throughout the United States. Addressing a cheering crowd of some 9,000 at a Paris rally March 21, many sporting orange-tractor-marked tee shirts, speaking in serious, calm, in down-to-earth tones and with a rugged look, Bayrou took a first shot at the front-running, neo-Gaullist candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, who has made no secret of his admiration for President George Bush who in a rare gesture, agreed to be photographed with Sarkozy at the White House last September. Then Bayrou took a shot at the Socialist candidate, Ségolène Royal who has made no secret of her admiration for reforms undertaken in Britain by Prime Minister Tony Blair and successive political leaders in Sweden, Denmark and other Nordic countries. “Between those who want France to be America, and those who want France to be Scandinavia, it is time to prove that France wants to be France…France needs a peaceful revolution,” the centrist candidate declared, hitting strongly at his main theme: the parties of Royal and Sarkozy, if they take power, guarantees that “nothing, basically, will change really.” Banking heavily on recent polls showing that some 60% of 44.5 million registered voters are not satisfied with the ideas and platforms of most left and right-wing candidates; and that a record turnout is expected with an estimated 1.8 million new voters registered, many in their 20s and 30s, Bayrou firmly believes he can rally a majority around the traditional-centrist pledge. That is to unify dissatisfied, centrist-leaning Socialists, and moderate, leftist-leaning conservatives in Sarkozy’s party of which he is also the highly-popular president, the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire, the UMP. A national poll this week showed Sarkozy backed by 26% of the first-round voters, followed by Royal (24.5%) Bayrou (19.5%) and far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen. (15%) If elected, Bayrou pledges to create a “grand parti démocrate,” and that he is prepared to work with future coalition partners drawn from the ranks of France’s “Social Democrats” and “open” members of the UMP, whom he did not identify. That notion for obvious reasons, appeals to neither Royal or Sarkozy, nor the runner-up leader in the polls, Le Pen. He heads the far-right Front National Party, the other, previous “third man” who has unsuccessfully bid for the presidency several times, and is slowly closing in on Bayrou. “France is not Germany where for many reasons coalitions work,” says a top Socialist insider and former minister with wide international experience. “And without a majority, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for Bayrou to govern.” Crucial, two-round legislative elections are scheduled for June 10 and June 17, following five years of strong UMP control of the legislative and executive branches of government. Other, more-personal problems beset Bayrou: critics who say that while they admire his honesty, frankness, down-to-earth style, and that he is a devout Roman Catholic, they believe he is soft, vague on major, domestic policy issues, such as chronic unemployment and growing crime and violence, particularly in rundown suburbs in and around large, French cities. On the latter issue of security at home, Sarkozy’s tough stances have placed him well ahead of his rivals in opinion polls. Critics on the left say he is no real centrist, but a conservative, noting that with several, notable exceptions, including a censure vote of the Chirac government last year, he has voted with the UMP legislative majority during the past five years. A Harvard professor of economics visiting Paris, Philippe Aghion, told Le Monde he views Bayrou as the candidate of continuity, arguing that his reform proposals don’t go nearly far enough in meeting France’s structural problems, such as lagging labor mobility, investments, and innovative, business-oriented R&D. “I want a profound change with regard to the 12 years of Chirac and 14 years of Mitterrand,” counters Bayrou, who in several recent books, speeches and interviews comes across as a French-style center-right leader, committed to changing society and improving the nation’s lackluster economy, but in moderation. Details can be found on his web site (www.bayrou.fr) which, on the economic front boil down to supply-side proposals – balancing the budget, easing taxes and charges for companies; improving the environment, while introducing flexibility in labor relations and establishing a US-style small business administration to reconcile what he describes as “the economy and the social” aspects of French society. With regard to trans-Atlantic relations, Bayrou says that, while “the USA is not my model,” and that he wants the European Union to “counterbalance” US power, he believes the answer rests with the EU’s capacity to provide a stronger, more-unified alternative voice in foreign policy and forgetting past tensions. “Yes, we broke with Washington over Iraq, but we are all tired of the strains and the French-bashing in the US, even though we still have our differences,” said Jean-Marie Cavada, a deputy in the European Parliament, former CEO of France Television and one of Bayrou’s close advisers. “It is time to move on and improve our relations with Washington,” Cavada told Transatlantic, “and Bayrou whose party has always been pro-Western alliance, is I think best-qualified.” Meantime, to get his messages across, lamenting the absence of national, face-to-face televised debate between the candidates – prior to the first round – Bayrou Wednesday proposed holding one, but on the Internet. Royal immediately accepted, as did Le Pen. Sarkozy declined the offer. For the time being. |
